After what has felt like an eternity – though has in fact been less than four months (so far, at least) – the classic car world is slowly waking up from it’s enforced slumbers, as relaxations in social distancing guidelines and the size of gatherings start gradually to take effect here in the UK.
The London Concours – originally scheduled for June 10th and 11th, will now definitely take place on its rescheduled dates of August 19th and 20th , albeit with limitations on numbers, and the Hampton Court Concours has also confirmed it will take place as scheduled on September 4th to 6th – in both cases, providing there is no re-emergence of Covid-19. Your correspondent will report back on both events on behalf of ViaRETRO, of course. Sadly, Goodwood has just announced the cancellation of both the Festival of Speed and the Revival.
In the auction world, Historics Auctioneers, after having had to cancel their last sale, has confirmed it will be holding its 10th anniversary sale on July 18th and 19th at an outdoor venue, Windsor Lakes in Datchet, with cars parked further apart than usual and attendees spread a little further out than usual, a format I believe other auction houses are also looking at.
In conjunction with its 10th anniversary, Historics kindly sent me some data on sale prices of various classics going back to the first of those ten years. They make interesting reading, so I thought I’d share some of the nuggets contained therein – but I should stress, this is not meant to be any kind of exhaustive or expert study, just some observations from someone with an interest in classic cars.
For a number of years, classics have been deemed to be one of the safer investments one could make over time – although they too are subject to fluctuation, of course. Some of us will remember the rampant classic price inflation of the 1990’s followed by something of a collapse. More recently, it’s seemed that in many cases those heady days had returned, only for the last couple of years to have seen a flattening and in some cases, a dip in prices – the Ferrari 246 Dino comes to mind, as does the Aston Martin DB6, both now fetching between 5 and 10 percent less than perhaps two or three years ago.
Past their peak? But still expensive…and very desirable
Of course, it’s very difficult to make direct comparisons, even of ostensibly similar cars – condition, ownership history, mileage, originality, provenance, documentation, even the time of year, etc etc can all make a difference to the price achieved.
Nevertheless, it is possible to make some general comparisons, and I’m going to try to do that here. A couple of things to bear in mind – as we all know, inflation, even at the very low rates experienced over the last few years, has an impact when making comparisons, so it’s worth pointing out that according to the UK Office for National Statistics, £1 in 2010 would be the equivalent of £1.29 in 2019, a 29% inflation over the decade. So we can assume that a car that sold for £25,000 in 2010 would, all other things being equal, cost £32,250 today. By way of comparison, I will put equivalent 2019 values – the last full year – in brackets throughout this piece, and those prices will come via the Bank of England’s calculator, so should be acceptable to most folks.
It should also be borne in mind that interest rates have been at historic lows for pretty much the last ten years, averaging around 0.5% in the UK since the beginning of the decade, so putting our £25,000 in the bank in 2010 and getting a relatively generous annual 1% interest would result in a net loss, since it would only have grown to £27,615 by the end of 2019, whereas had it just kept up with inflation it would have been worth the aforementioned £32,250.
Obviously it’s not possible in the space of a piece such as this to provide any kind of comprehensive or definitive overview of auction prices or trends, but there are some interesting comparisons to be made and a few conclusions to be drawn, so let’s dive in!
Starting at the beginning of the alphabet, is there anyone who reads ViaRETRO who wouldn’t like to own a 1964 Alfa Romeo 2600 Spider? In July 2011, you could have bought one that had been restored for £31,360 (£38,508). In 2018, Historics sold a more recent quality restoration for £105,000 (£107,694), quite an increase even if you allow for the newer restoration – not a bad investment, and a stunning car as well.
1960’s Aston Martin DB’s went through the roof during the 1990’s, then dropped before embarking on another bull run in the 21st century. Most of the big money though went on the DB4 and 5, with the DB6 left trailing somewhat. Indeed, in 2010, Historics sold a rebuilt 1967 DB6 for just £78,225 (£101,456), but in recent years the DB6 has followed its predecessors’ upward trajectory and earlier this year a beautiful 1970 example for the somewhat higher sum of £310,000 – not too shabby despite the more recent drop in prices for these British Grand Tourers. Perhaps the DB6 has simply peaked, and it still lags behind the DB4/5 and offers perhaps the best value of the DB4/5/6 series – coming up in July is a 1964 DB5 with an estimate of between £540 – 640,000…I shan’t be bidding.
Another classic that is much admired and lusted after – certainly by most of the ViaRETRO team, at least – is the BMW E9, and E9’s of all types have shown increases over the past decade. However, the E9 that has accelerated the most rapidly in price is undoubtedly the 3.0 CSL, and we can see by how much from two examples sold by Historics in 2010 and 2017. A very original, low mileage 1973 CSL sold in June 2010 for just £12,733 (£16,449). Seven years later, a 1972 model – described as “lovingly cared for” – found a buyer prepared to pay £136,640 (£144,826), a rate of increase matched by very few cars – maybe a longhood Porsche 911S, which will now also set you back in the region of £150k-plus.
Less exotic, but in many ways just as exciting, a fully restored 1971 Chevy El Camino SS 396cu in a smart yellow with black centre stripes finish reached just £11,000 (£13,507) in July 2011; in March this year a superb black one from 1970 – admittedly with a 456cu in engine – achieved a price of £42,560. I saw this particular car – very cool indeed!
Sticking with Americana, a 1955 Ford Thunderbird convertible sold in June 2010 for £15,645 (£20,211); eight years later, another convertible of the same vintage fetched considerably more – £46,412 (£47,602). However, perhaps a sign of the recent flattening of the market, a very lovely 1956 Thunderbird surprisingly – to me at least – failed to sell in November 2019, despite an estimate range of just £28,000 to £35,000.
An El Camino for £11,000 in July 2011, but £42,560 in March 2020 – and two ostensibly similar Ford Thunderbirds, £15,645 in June 2010, £46,412 eight years later.
Classic Ferrari’s have long attracted headlines for their sky-high values, but in reality it’s only a few – the most obvious being the fabled, fabulous and stratospherically expensive 250GTO, but it’s possible to buy several examples from the stable of the prancing horse without paying millions, or in the case of cars such as the Ferrari 400i or 308GTB, well under £50,000. Nevertheless, one sale that caught my eye in Historics’ list was that of a 1961 250GTE “in good order” that found a buyer in May 2011 for £94,826 (£116,442), which struck me as remarkably cheap…or more accurately, relatively inexpensive. Historics haven’t sold another since, but I thought I’d take a look elsewhere for a similar car and whoever bought that one has almost certainly made a sound investment – even allowing for running costs over the past decade. Looking through a few classifieds, I found a similar car – unrestored – for sale today for £304,000.
The Ferrari cachet has extended in recent years to the FIAT Dino, especially the Spider – Historics sold a good 1968 2-litre example in December 2010 for £27,379 (£35,370), good luck finding even a restoration project for that money today; the cheapest one I’ve found has an asking price of £85,000, but more usually these are in the £125 – 150,000 range.
Delving back into Historics’ data, one of the cars that has attracted headlines for it’s part in the rise in prices in the classic car world is of course the Jaguar E-Type, and in particular, Series 1 roadsters. The fact that the number of E-Types on the road has increased steadily over the last ten years is indicative of their rise in value as more restoration projects have been deemed worth undertaking. You can buy some without hitting the six-figure bracket – particularly coupés, which I happen to think look better – but the early roadsters are now well into that area. In June 2010 Historics sold a restored red 1962 Series 1 roadster for £66,000 (£85,263); in November last year they sold two, both restored – a 4.2-litre 1965 car for £126,784, and an absolutely gorgeous 1966 car for £155,000 – certainly better than money in the bank, I would suggest, and a lot more fun!
From £66,000 to £126,784 and £155,000….
What about some of the stalwarts of the British classic car scene, such as the MGB or Michelotti’s handsome Triumph Stag? Being relatively more common, and less glamorous than some, prices have never really hit stratospheric levels, but their trend is still upwards, if only gradually. A restored 1976 Stag in blue sold just five years ago for £7,392 (£8,256), but in July 2019, another fine-looking restored example , this time in bright red, reached a sale price of £15,282. Meanwhile a lightly restored 1973 MGB V8 – not your average “B”, granted – failed to sell in October 2011 with an estimate of just £5- to-7,000 (£6,139 to £8,595), but a white example of the same vintage – albeit fully restored, went for £33,600 in May last year – even allowing for restoration costs, not a bad jump!
Two classic stalwarts on the way up?
There are other examples of what appear – at least on the basis of relatively superficial comparison – “gold-plated” investments; a high-quality Mercedes 190SL is now a six-digit car all day long, and while Ford Capri’s in general and 2.8i’s in particular have seen good increases, perhaps the rarest of them all, the RS3100, has really moved up. Back in September 2010 one sold for £17,321 (£22,376), but last year Historics sold one at their Mercedes-Benz World sale in May for £46,412, which represents quite a jump.
However – there’s always a “however” – it’s not universally good financial news for classic car buyers. Like all investments, values can move up or down, and there are no guarantees. You might think a Ford Lotus Cortina Mk 1 was a pretty safe bet, but not necessarily – back in September 2012 Historics sold an immaculately restored 1965 car for £42,000 (£49,969), but earlier this year at their Ascot sale, a fully-restored 1966 example fetched £46,412 – as economists and politicians would put it, effectively a negative gain.
The stately and elegant Alvis TD21 is another car that you should really buy for love rather than money – a 1959 restored drophead sold in 2010 for £54,757 (£70,726), but a 1960 restoration went in May 2019 for £57,120, effectively a considerable price drop. But what a fine car it is!
Not much profit in either of these….
I could continue to dip in and out of the data – it’s a fun exercise, though maybe not for everyone – but are there any lessons to be learned, even from the data of a single auction house?
Well, yes… if profit is your driver, like any investment, values can rise or fall, and just because a car – even a bona-fide classic like a Lotus Cortina Mk 1 – falls into the category of classic, that doesn’t mean it will automatically increase in value; you have to pick your car quite carefully, and while it’s possible to make some educated guesses, it’s far from an exact science.
If your desire is to dip into classic ownership as a way of perhaps indulging a fond memory for a car from your past but without risking heavy losses, you might be OK, provided again that you pick your car carefully – preferably one that the previous owners have spent money on (something I’ve learned to my own cost).
Above all, you should buy a classic because you really, really want one – to admire, to drive, to share the joy with other enthusiasts – and if it increases in value while in your custody, even better, but be prepared for it not to; indeed, be prepared to lose money on it. Only buy one with a view to making a profit if you’re a dealer 😊.
Photos courtesy of Historics Auctioneers.